Saucony and Merrell Set to Lead Wolverine Worldwide's Q3 Results

Wolverine World Wide's third quarter should land a 2-cent earnings per share beat, driven by robust trends at Saucony and Merrell, according to UBS analyst Mauriceo Serna. The Rockford, Michigan-based footwear group reports with its active brands carrying the growth story while Sweaty Betty remains in reset mode.

"Our analyses indicate that Wolverine World Wide had a solid third quarter, led by robust trends at Saucony and Merrell," Serna said. "We thus forecast a 2-cent third quarter earnings per share beat, and expect an in-line fourth quarter outlook." He flagged possible upside from momentum at the two brands that could drive a bigger beat-and-raise.

What do the search and traffic data show?

UBS's Google analysis indicates broad-based Merrell momentum, with U.S. searches up 14 percent year-over-year and U.K. searches up 54 percent in the quarter. Saucony U.K. searches rose 135 percent. Industry data shows Saucony's U.S. website visits up 7 percent, with European visits up 66 percent.

These data points "support continued momentum across Wolverine's key Active brands and reinforce our conviction in its growth potential," Serna said.

How big are the brand-level numbers?

Serna's forecasts break down as follows:

• Saucony: sales up 15 percent year-over-year to $153 million, supported by launches including Endorphin Elite 3, Triumph 24 and Hurricane 26.
• Merrell: sales up 5 percent to $176 million, a deceleration from 10 percent growth in the second quarter.
• Sweaty Betty: sales down 3 percent to $43 million as the U.S. reset continues.
• Work segment: sales flat at $106 million.

Collaborations with Studio Nicholson, Engineered Garments, Minted New York and Westside Gunn should support Saucony lifestyle demand, Serna said. The key city strategy across London, Paris and Berlin continues to build momentum, leading him to expect "robust growth across both performance and lifestyle, with international markets leading."

At Merrell, U.S. hiking share gains are likely. The Moab 3 and Moab Speed 2 continue to perform in hiking, while the Agility Peak 6 supports trail running. "Overall, we expect Merrell to continue taking share despite tougher compares," Serna concluded.

Improving inventory health and marketplace response suggest Wolverine's turnaround "continues to gain traction," he added.

What does Telsey expect for the quarter?

Dana Telsey, chief investment officer at Telsey Advisory Group, expects EPS of 45 cents — one cent below the 46-cent consensus but at the high end of the guided range of 42 cents to 45 cents. She pegged total revenue up 6.1 percent year-over-year to $499 million, just under the $500 million consensus and nearly meeting the guidance range of $495 million to $500 million.

Telsey forecasts 8.0 percent growth for Wolverine's active business, with Saucony up mid-teens and Merrell up high-single digit.

Tariffs remain a headwind, but the pressure is largely mitigated. "Management continues to estimate an approximately $50 million gross tariff headwind for Fiscal Year 2026, with most of the exposure being offset through pricing actions, supply chain initiatives, product cost savings, and other mitigation efforts," Telsey noted.

Tariff refunds could bring upside, she said, because the company's outlook did not include recovery of $36 million in IEEPA tariffs previously paid.

Could Sweaty Betty fold into Saucony?

Williams Trading's Sam Poser expects Wolverine to meet guidance and also cited possible upside from tariff refunds.

"We do believe that the 2027 test of new Saucony apparel, finally using Sweaty Betty's expertise, foreshadows a stable brand with a sustainable growth story, and the possible consolidation of Sweaty Betty into Saucony," Poser said. The test launches in spring 2027.

Saucony's performance footwear "remains strong," with sales strengthening across the Endorphin, Hurricane, Guide and Ride franchises, he said. The $150 price points on the Endorphin Azura, Guide and Ride styles sit in commercial sweet spots, but the brand faces competition from Asics, Brooks and Hoka in the specialty running channel.

At Merrell, product offerings continue to improve, though Poser argued a "more energized demand creation effort must be put in place to support compelling lifestyle shoes — such as Relay — before the trend moves on."

For the work business, new technologies in traditional and western work styles, plus a small lifestyle collection, could drive sequential improvement this year. Sweaty Betty's product quality and design are "very good," Poser said, but building share against Lululemon, Alo, Vuori and Beyond Yoga "makes for some heavy lifting."

All three analysts now watch whether the printed results confirm the beat-and-raise case when Wolverine reports.