Adidas Raises Profit Outlook as Q3 Operating Profit Hits Record €1.01bn

Adidas has raised its full-year operating profit forecast to roughly €2.5 billion, up from a previous €2.3 billion, after posting the highest quarterly revenue and operating profit in its history for the three months to September 30. The German sportswear group confirmed the figures, first released in preliminary form earlier this month, in an official announcement on Thursday morning in Germany.

Third-quarter revenue grew 9 percent to €7.25 billion, a record for any quarter, or 7 percent in currency-neutral terms. Operating profit rose 37 percent to €1.01 billion — also a quarterly record — delivering an operating margin of 13.9 percent.

CEO Bjørn Gulden, who took the top job in 2023, described the period as a "great quarter" that brought the company its "highest revenue ever," with sales in almost all markets growing in double digits.

What does this change for sourcing and wholesale partners?

The short answer: continued restraint on sell-in. Europe, Adidas's biggest market, was the exception to the growth story. Sales there fell 4 percent to €2.24 billion. The company attributed this to its "conservative sell-in approach amid high inventory levels in the marketplace and promotional activity in the lifestyle footwear market." Adidas expects European sales to return to high-single-digit growth in the fourth quarter.

Footwear told the same story globally. Sales in the category were flat at €3.83 billion, "because the company continued to manage wholesale sell-in conservatively to protect its full-price product franchises within a promotional marketplace," Adidas said in its statement. For vendors and wholesale accounts, that signals a second consecutive season in which Adidas prioritizes full-price integrity over volume.

Apparel carried the quarter. Sales rose 22 percent to €2.9 billion. Accessories, a category that had seen little or no growth until recently, advanced 6 percent to €527 million.

Where the growth came from

Every region outside Europe grew at double digits:

• North America (second-biggest market): up 14 percent to €1.47 billion
• Greater China: up 20 percent
• Japan and South Korea: up 15 percent
• Latin America: up 29 percent — the fastest-growing region and a continuation of an established trend for the German brand
• Emerging markets, including territories in the Middle East operating amid conflict: up 15 percent

The regional mix matters for supply-chain planners. Growth is concentrated in Latin America and Asia, which shifts demand toward factories and logistics routes serving those markets, while European destocking works through the channel.

Tariff refunds and the margin question

Part of the profit improvement was not operational. Adidas received €200 million of an expected €200-300 million in refunds from its U.S. tariff claims during the quarter. Strip that out and the underlying profit picture, while still strong, is less spectacular than the 37 percent headline suggests — roughly €810 million before the one-off, or a margin near 11 percent.

Even so, the 13.9 percent reported margin marks a milestone for Gulden, who has long said he wanted the brand to clear the 10 percent operating margin threshold he set after arriving in 2023. He has now done so with room to spare.

Guidance: cautious as ever, but nudged upward

Gulden is known for conservative guidance, and analysts have speculated that a significant drop in the Adidas share price after positive second-quarter results reflected exactly that caution. This time he moved the numbers: full-year currency-neutral revenue growth is still forecast at 9 to 10 percent, but operating profit guidance rose to about €2.5 billion from €2.3 billion.

Adidas has now posted record sales for several consecutive quarters despite a tough market environment and broader economic instability. The pattern is consistent: records on the top line, discipline on sell-in, and a chief executive who raises expectations only when the numbers are already banked.

The practical question for the trade is whether fourth-quarter Europe delivers the promised high-single-digit recovery — and whether flat footwear sell-in turns into reordering as inventories clear.