US ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 2.3 million TEU in August, the busiest month of 2026 so far, and volumes are now projected to slide to 2 million TEU by November as an early, stretched-out peak season gives way to replenishment-only freight.

August's total rose 0.4% over July but slipped 0.7% year-over-year, according to the tracker, which is produced for the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. September is forecast at 2.28 million TEU — a decline from August, yet still an 8.2% gain against September 2025.

What does the monthly data show?

• August: 2.3 million TEU, up 0.4% month over month, down 0.7% year over year
• September (forecast): 2.28 million TEU, up 8.2% year over year
• October (forecast): 2.25 million TEU, up 8.5% year over year
• November (forecast): 2 million TEU, down 1% year over year
• December (forecast): 2.02 million TEU, up 0.6% year over year

The pattern points to a gradual reversion to typical post-peak volumes rather than a demand collapse. The year-over-year gains in September and October reflect easy comparisons against late 2025, while the November dip is measured against a stronger base.

Why did the peak season shift?

NRF supply chain and customs policy vice president Jonathan Gold said the busiest stretch of the year is likely over. "The truth is that the peak season started early and was stretched out through the summer and early fall, with the difference from month to month often amounting to little more than a rounding error," Gold said.

That flattening of the peak has direct implications for sourcing teams: arrival windows compressed into summer and early fall mean less late-season vessel space demand, but also less flexibility for buyers counting on December ocean freight for holiday replenishment. Gold noted that most holiday merchandise has already landed, leaving the remainder of the year to last-minute replenishment and preparation for early 2027.

What is the full-year and early-2027 outlook?

Global Port Tracker estimates total 2026 volume at 25.8 million TEU, up 1.4% from the 25.4 million TEU recorded in 2025. The first half of 2026 moved 12.7 million TEU, a 1.1% increase year over year.

Early 2027 points to a modest slowdown:

• January 2027 (forecast): 2.07 million TEU, down 1.9% year over year
• February 2027 (forecast): 1.92 million TEU, up 1% year over year

How strong is the demand behind the volumes?

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, flagged a disconnect between freight flows and macro signals. "Core economic indicators are broadly flat or weakening slightly month over month recently," Hackett said, even as consumer spending holds up under inflationary pressure.

Hackett added: "Consumers appear to remain confident and cautious at the same time, with consumer confidence indexes sliding to multi-year lows while consumer spending continues to be robust."

For importers and sourcing managers, that combination — resilient spend paired with weakening indicators and a front-loaded peak — argues for cautious first-quarter 2027 booking plans rather than aggressive pre-builds. Global Port Tracker covers Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast. With holiday stock largely onshore, attention now shifts to how sharply January's forecast 1.9% decline lands and whether early-2027 orders stay on that conservative trajectory.