U.S. importers sourcing from India face spot rates of roughly $11,000 per 40-foot container on the India–U.S. East Coast lane as of Sept. 22 — a 461 percent surge from $1,960 on May 8, according to S&P Global data.

The spike follows structural capacity cuts. Mediterranean Shipping Company withdrew its Indus Express service in May, and Ocean Network Express replaced its West India North America service with a redesigned India North America Express loop two months later. Freight forwarder OEC Group said Wednesday that MSC's exit removed 20 to 25 percent of market capacity, with ONE's shift cutting a further 2 to 5 percent.

"Carriers have become much more aggressive about managing supply," said Craig Lind, manager of OEC Group's Seattle branch. "Suspending services and blanking sailings has dramatically reduced available capacity and put upward pressure on freight rates."

Shippers are competing for a smaller pool of vessel space, with longer booking lead times and more cargo rollovers feeding into higher container prices, OEC said.

Equipment and Port Pressure Compound the Squeeze

The constraints extend beyond vessel space. Through September, premier carrier sailings from western India were "largely sold out," according to U.K. forwarder Metro Global's Wednesday market note, with 40-foot equipment "especially scarce" at Jawaharlal Nehru Port (Nhava Sheva). Container shortages have also been reported at inland container depots across northern India.

DHL Global Forwarding's September ocean freight update echoed the assessment, saying demand on the Indian subcontinent-to-U.S. lane exceeds available capacity and keeps rates elevated, with Asian port congestion and vessel detours further constraining effective capacity.

India's gateways are moving record volumes. Nhava Sheva handled a record 831,956 TEUs in August, up 19.5 percent year over year. Mundra Port set its own record of 819,046 TEUs, a 12.9 percent increase, according to operator Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone.

That throughput is straining operations. Kuehne+Nagel's port update for the week of Sept. 23–29 shows average vessel waiting time at Mundra at 1.57 days, up from one day in each of the three preceding weekly periods; the forwarder classified Mundra as heavily disrupted beginning with the week ending Sept. 22. Nhava Sheva's latest seven-day average stood at 1.67 days, after peaking at 2.2 days in the week ending Sept. 15.

The bottleneck extends to transshipment. Flexport's Sept. 17 market update identified the South India–Sri Lanka-to-U.S. East Coast corridor as the most constrained route, noting carriers had cut booking intake and omitted Colombo calls as backlogs built at the Sri Lankan hub.

Export Demand Underpins the Crunch

The capacity squeeze collides with exceptional export growth. India's merchandise exports to the U.S. jumped 21.8 percent year over year to $8.4 billion in August, according to India's Commerce Ministry. Overall exports climbed 26.1 percent to $43.8 billion that month.

For sourcing teams, the implications are concrete: longer booking windows and premium pricing through the fourth quarter as peak-season cargo competes for constrained space.

Carriers Add Capacity — at a Price

Other carriers are moving to capture the displaced volume. Maersk has begun deploying eight vessels of roughly 9,000 TEUs on its MECL India–U.S. East Coast service, sequentially replacing ships in the 6,000- to 8,000-TEU range, according to the Journal of Commerce. The first upsized vessel, the 9,000-TEU Maersk San Cristobal, called Nhava Sheva on Sept. 21. Larger vessels could add roughly 1,000 to 1,500 TEUs of weekly capacity starting in November.

Maersk acknowledges the relief is partial. Its September North America market update said demand from India, the Middle East and Africa into North America remains strong while capacity is limited, and advised customers to book at least six weeks ahead. The MECL service has resumed Suez Canal transits, cutting transit times by eight days.

CMA CGM's India America Express (INDAMEX) continues as a weekly service with an 11-vessel fleet, calling Nhava Sheva and Mundra before serving New York, Norfolk, Savannah and Charleston. The carrier plans to add a direct call at Canada's Port of Halifax beginning in November.

Surcharges remain steep. Effective Thursday, Maersk applied an $11,650-per-container peak season surcharge from northwest India to U.S. East and Gulf Coast destinations. The same day, CMA CGM implemented a $10,000 surcharge for Indian Subcontinent and Bangladesh cargo moving to those coasts.

With Maersk's larger vessels not adding meaningful capacity until November and surcharges in force, importers sourcing from India should plan on extended lead times and elevated landed costs through the fourth quarter, with carrier network adjustments continuing to reshape available space on the trade.