Hoka arrives at Academy Sports + Outdoors later this week, and Jefferies analyst Jonathan Matuszewski said Tuesday the performance running brand could generate more than $100 million annually for the retailer by 2030.

The launch starts online and at 15 stores across Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana and Texas. Matuszewski's bottom-up analysis points to "a credible path for Hoka to scale from an initial 15-store launch into a broader fleet rollout," assuming the pilot succeeds.

The math behind the projection is straightforward. If Hoka captures a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit percentage of Academy's footwear category, that would support the $100 million-plus figure by 2030. The forecast covers only store-level sales and excludes any upside from nationwide availability on Academy's e-commerce site, Matuszewski noted.

Precedent: Jordan Brand's Fleet Rollout

The analyst sees a template in Academy's recent Jordan Brand expansion. Academy added Jordan to 145 stores and online in April 2025 as part of a broadened Nike partnership. Earlier this month, chief merchandising officer Matt McCabe said 200 Academy stores now feature Jordan shops, with elements of the brand present in every location.

"Our Jordan business is really, really good year-over-year," McCabe told Footwear News. He framed Hoka as the latest step in a broader push into better- and best-tier footwear, pointing to the Birkenstock expansion, sustained Brooks business, sales of Adidas Adizero Evo SL and the growing New Balance program. "All those really attract a better- and best-level customer," he said.

Traffic, ASP and Cannibalization Risk

Hoka ranks among the most requested brands among Academy customers, according to Matuszewski. He expects the label to drive incremental traffic, attract new shoppers and lift average selling price at Academy given its premium positioning — although he acknowledged the gains could come at the expense of incumbent brands on Academy's floor, including Nike, Brooks and Asics.

"We see a path for Hoka to expand beyond its initial test stores, similar to Jordan's rollout across the Academy fleet," Matuszewski said. "Our confidence stems from both strong consumer demand and Hoka's success at Dick's Sporting Goods, where it emerged as a meaningful growth driver and expanded participation in performance running."

Timing and Competitive Positioning

The assortment move comes as much of the industry works through excess inventory in retro and classic silhouettes. Academy's footwear mix, by contrast, "remains well diversified and is now adding in premium performance footwear where demand remains healthier," Matuszewski said. He flagged the contrast with Foot Locker, which continues to grapple with more pronounced assortment and inventory challenges.

The analyst also drew a structural parallel: Academy's current position in outdoor sports retail resembles where Dick's stood a few years ago, before its Hoka and On launches. If Hoka proves productive at Academy, he argued, it could serve as a "calling card" for the retailer to attract other high-growth, desirable brands in footwear and beyond.

Deckers Context

Parent company Deckers Brands last reported a solid quarter for the label. In July, Deckers posted first-quarter net sales of $1.02 billion, up 5.7 percent from $964.5 million a year earlier, with diluted EPS of 94 cents beating Wall Street's expected range of 83 cents to 92 cents. Hoka led the results, with net sales up 7.7 percent to $703.5 million, while Ugg rose 4.9 percent to $278.0 million.

The $100 million scenario remains an analyst projection tied to a successful pilot, not a confirmed commitment from either company. Whether Academy converts the 15-store test into a fleet-wide rollout will hinge on sell-through in the four launch states over the coming quarters.