Deckers Faces Q2 Test as Analysts Split on Hoka and Ugg Momentum

Deckers Brands reports fiscal second quarter earnings Thursday, with Wall Street expecting at least in-line EPS and a reiteration of the fiscal 2027 guidance range of $7.35 to $7.50 in diluted earnings per share. Behind that consensus, however, analysts are divided on whether the Goleta, Calif.-based company's two growth engines, Hoka and Ugg, are still firing.

The stakes are concrete. In the first quarter, revenue growth at Hoka and Ugg slightly missed market expectations, yet Deckers still beat overall and raised its full-year EPS guidance to $7.35 to $7.50, up from the prior $7.30 to $7.45 range. The question now is whether that beat-and-raise pattern survives a softer consumer backdrop.

What do sell-side analysts expect?

Sam Poser at Williams Trading expects "few surprises" on Thursday. He sees fiscal 2027 EPS guidance moving higher, partly on increased share buybacks. His full-year forecasts call for Hoka revenue up low-double-digits and Ugg up mid-single digits.

Poser cautioned against reading too much into Ugg's early numbers. "Over 80 percent of Ugg's annual DTC revenue, which reflects consumer demand, occurs in the back half of the fiscal year," mostly from late November through mid-February, he noted. For the second quarter, he models Ugg revenue up 5.8 percent.

On Hoka, Poser said the U.S. business is stable and likely to grow low-single digits, led by DTC gains and double-digit international growth. He expects second quarter Hoka revenue up 8.9 percent, with Hoka DTC revenue up 16 percent. "We remain confident that Deckers' track record of beating and raising guidance will continue," he concluded.

His product roadmap points are specific. Hoka will lean into key franchises with Ultra versions of core shoe groups for elite runners, including the Bondi Ultra at $300, slated for June 2027. Poser expects Ugg to sell through fall 2026 product at full price during peak season, driven by the men's Birch shoe and boot collection and a women's western line of shoes, clogs and short boots.

Where are the risks?

Not everyone shares that confidence. UBS softlines analyst Jay Sole said the firm's proprietary data point to Hoka and Ugg trends softer than previously thought over recent months. He flagged strong international underlying demand for both brands but warned that inflationary pressures could weigh on U.S. DTC sales.

Jefferies analyst Blake Anderson focused on weather. El Niño forecasts call for warmer temperatures and a wetter winter in the Northeast, which he said could pressure Ugg demand in that larger region. Even with product diversification into year-round categories as a partial offset, he noted revenue remains highly exposed in December.

BMO's Kelly Crago took the most bearish stance. She initiated coverage with an "Underperform" rating, citing Hoka's maturing U.S. opportunity, slowing growth and margin pressure. She also noted that growth has become increasingly reliant on stock buybacks, and echoed Anderson's concern that a warmer fall and winter adds risk to Ugg's seasonal demand.

For Thursday's print, Crago told investors to watch Hoka trends in U.S. DTC, which she said may have turned negative in the second quarter. Ahead, she flagged intra-quarter point-of-sale trends for both brands and any signs of elevated promotional activity or inventory levels in the holiday period as key indicators.

On Ugg specifically, Crago is cautious about brand heat after years of growth from core styles such as the Tasman and Platform Mini. Management itself has highlighted non-core categories — men's and the Zora ballet flat — as the "bigger drivers of growth in fiscal year '27."

Thursday's report, and management's commentary on holiday sell-through, should clarify whether Deckers' guidance range holds or whether the bears' weather, margin and buyback concerns begin to show in the numbers.