UK retail sales up just 1.5% in October as shoppers wait for Black Friday

UK retail sales grew just 1.5% year-on-year in October, held back by shoppers delaying big-ticket purchases until Black Friday, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG.

The figure matched the 12-month average. But non-food sales — the segment that covers apparel, footwear and general merchandise — were flat against October last year. That was marginally better than the 0.1% decline recorded over the previous three months, yet below the 0.2% average growth seen over the past year.

For sourcing and supply-chain planners, the channel split matters more than the headline. In-store non-food sales fell 1.1%. Online non-food sales rose 1.8%. Online penetration (the share of non-food purchases made online) climbed to 38.6%, up from 38.2%.

What held spending back?

The BRC said shoppers postponed larger purchases, particularly furniture and white goods, in anticipation of November discounts. That deferral pattern compresses the trading calendar. It pushes volume into a shorter window and raises the stakes on delivery timing for the back half of Q4.

Clothing and footwear bucked the softness. Both grew during the month, alongside seasonal items such as duvets as colder weather arrived.

Linda Ellett, UK Head of Consumer, Retail & Leisure at KPMG, said: "Clothing and footwear purchases grew in October, along with cosy essentials like duvets, as temperatures lowered and storms finally blew in the start of autumn and winter season for retailers."

She added a caveat. "But with consumers facing higher household costs, caution ahead of the Budget, and some waiting for Black Friday deals, overall sales growth was modest."

Is the demand deferred or disappearing?

BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson framed October as a pause rather than a loss. Retailers are betting pent-up demand converts into stronger spending across November and December.

"October was subdued for retailers, as shoppers delayed spending ahead of Black Friday and Christmas," she said. "Big ticket categories, such as furniture and white goods, performed badly as customers waited for November deals."

The deferral thesis is plausible but unproven. If household budgets stay tight, delayed purchases may simply not materialise at full price. Retailers will need markdown depth to convert them, which puts margin — not just volume — at risk in the peak weeks.

Food carried the growth

Food sales increased 3.2% year-on-year, against 3.5% growth in October 2025. Halloween falling on a Saturday lifted spending on snacks, costumes and decorations. Some households also added cupboard staples after Government advice to prepare for emergencies.

So the headline growth rests largely on food and seasonal triggers, not discretionary appetite. Strip those out, and underlying non-food demand looks close to stagnant.

Dickinson warned that cost pressure is building on both sides of the till. Rising interest rates and energy bills threaten further pressure on consumer spending and on retail prices — a margin squeeze for retailers already absorbing elevated input costs.

The figures cover the four weeks from 4 to 31 October. Whether the Black Friday gamble pays off will be visible in November's data; the risk is that discount-led volume arrives at prices retailers cannot sustain.