Global manufacturers raised purchases of raw materials, components and commodities in September at the fastest rate in four months, while shortages increased for the first time since May, according to the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index compiled by S&P Global and GEP.

The index, a weighted sum of six sub-indices drawn from Purchasing Managers Index data, PMI comments trackers and commodity price and supply indicators, tracks 40 countries and roughly 27,000 companies.

"Global input demand growth rose to its strongest since May and was close to its 2026 high, signaling firmer manufacturing activity heading into the fourth quarter," the report's authors said. "Purchasing strengthened across North America, Asia and Europe, with particularly strong increases in the United States, Germany, Taiwan and South Korea."

What does the September reading show?

Regional readings diverged sharply:

• Asia: the index rose to 1.49 from 1.24, a three-month high, as stronger demand from Asian factories coincided with tighter supply conditions.
• North America: the index climbed to 1.13 from 0.87, its highest level since June, driven by a resurgence in the U.S. manufacturing economy.
• Europe: the index fell to 0.66 from 1.27, indicating the lowest level of supply chain disruption on the continent since March.
• U.K.: the index dropped to 0.59 from 1.10 in August as manufacturers pared back stockpiling activity.

For sourcing teams, the demand picture cuts both ways. Buying strengthened across many large industrial players, including the U.S., Germany, South Korea and Taiwan. At the same time, reports indicated that safety buffers added to inventories dropped further during September, marking a sustained reduction since peaking in June.

Buffers remain historically high overall, the authors noted, signaling that global procurement managers still prefer to hold excess stock to mitigate inflation and shortages. Apparel and textile buyers watching freight and input costs will find little comfort in the transport data.

Where are the cost pressures building?

Shortages of oil and oil-based products were particularly acute in September, creating renewed cost and availability pressures for manufacturers. Labor shortages also created order backlogs. Transportation costs rose on higher oil prices, marking the first average increase in global logistics prices since April.

"Manufacturers are buying more because demand is strengthening, but they're doing so at a time when shortages and transportation costs are starting to rise again," said John Piatek, vice president of GEP Consulting. "For companies, that means the priority shifts from simply protecting inventory to securing supply and controlling costs."

What comes next for buyers?

Piatek's warning is direct. "If demand continues to build through the fourth quarter, businesses that wait will face tighter availability and higher input costs."

The September data suggests procurement teams entering fourth-quarter ordering cycles face a market where demand is firming at the same time that supply is tightening, with oil-linked inputs and logistics the most immediate pressure points; whether shortages widen or ease in October will determine how much leverage buyers retain on price and lead time.