NRF forecasts 4.2% US holiday spending growth amid value pressure

By Elena Vasquez

NRF projects US holiday-related spending of $1.01 trillion in November and December 2026, a 4.2% increase, as buyers place affordability at the center of seasonal spending plans.

The forecast accompanies NRF’s annual consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics among 8,094 US adults in October. The study measures shopping intentions, not completed purchases, and provides no apparel-specific order value, margin or supplier-volume forecast.

What does affordability mean for holiday demand?

Survey respondents reported three value-seeking behaviors:

• More sales: 43% said they would target more sales.
• Online comparisons: 31% said they would increase price comparisons online.
• Coupon use: 29% said they would use more coupons.

For fashion sellers, that mix points to pressure on full-price sell-through and greater use of visible promotions, although the survey did not quantify planned apparel discounts.

NRF industry and consumer insights vice president Allison Zeller said: “With affordability top of mind, holiday shoppers are taking a thoughtful approach to spending, balancing value with preserving traditions that make the holiday season special.”

“Retailers understand consumer budget priorities and are responding with compelling products, promotions and shopping experiences that make it easier to find value while still capturing the holiday excitement,” Zeller added. Those comments describe retailer responses; the survey provides no promotion-performance or margin data.

When will shoppers spend?

Despite economic uncertainty, 91% of US adults still plan to celebrate major winter holidays, maintaining participation at the high level seen in previous years.

• Before November: 43% intend to begin shopping, mainly to spread budgets or take advantage of early discounts. Among this group, 50% cite spreading costs as the main motivation and 37% cite attractive promotions.
• Thanksgiving weekend: 64% say they are likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend for deals, a timing pattern not notably changed from last year. Among shoppers delaying purchases, 46% believe the best deals arrive in November and December.

Prosper strategy executive vice president Phil Rist said: “From getting an early start to waiting for major deals and promotions, consumers are choosing when to shop based on what works best for them.”

“Even with a significant portion of shoppers beginning before November, many still plan to take advantage of deals and promotions during Thanksgiving weekend to make progress on their holiday shopping,” Rist added.

For apparel vendors, the timing data creates two commercial checkpoints: inventory and promotion readiness before November, followed by enough stock and pricing flexibility for the Thanksgiving-to-December deal period. The findings do not specify order quantities, delivery windows, or whether brands, retailers or suppliers absorb discount costs.

Which products and channels matter most?

• Apparel: 44% of respondents hope to receive clothing, making it one of the season’s most requested gift categories.
• Gift cards: 47% plan to receive gift cards, the most popular choice.
• Online: 53% plan to make digital purchases.
• Grocery and discount stores: Each draws 43% of planned shopping.
• Department stores: 42% plan to shop in department stores.

Gift cards exceeded apparel by three percentage points, while apparel still ranked among the season’s most requested gift categories. For brand and sourcing teams, the channel mix makes digital readiness and discount-channel exposure the main commercial variables. Apparel’s 44% request rate makes price presentation, size availability and delivery timing relevant to conversion, but it does not identify brands, fabrics or order volumes.

What can vendors plan against?

NRF’s $1.01 trillion estimate covers total holiday-related spending across November and December 2026 rather than fashion alone, and the 4.2% growth rate remains a forecast rather than a measured result. The October survey records intentions, so apparel brands should treat the 44% request rate as a demand signal rather than a sell-through guarantee.

The findings disclose no factory capacity, certification, sourcing commitment or lead-time change. Vendors still face a sequencing choice: align delivery and markdown calendars around the 43% pre-November cohort without missing the 64% waiting for Thanksgiving weekend, because promotion depth can determine whether value-seeking produces higher unit demand or lower realized margin.

The next test is whether stated intentions convert into NRF’s forecast $1.01 trillion and whether apparel brands can meet value expectations while protecting inventory and margin.