U.S. retail forecasts for the Nov. 1–Dec. 31 holiday season cluster between 2 and 6 percent sales growth, with retailers and researchers expecting solid profitability despite record-low consumer sentiment and persistent inflation — a combination that keeps pressure on margins, pricing and fulfillment costs through the fourth quarter.

PwC, which surveyed 4,093 U.S. consumers from June 15 to June 26, projects gift spending down just 2 percent despite the weak mood. "We continue to see this bifurcation between mood and behavior," said Ali Furman, U.S. consumer markets industry leader at PwC. She expects actual retail performance to land between plus 6 and 6.5 percent, similar to last year. Millennials are the exception, with an expected 10 percent drop in gift spending and a 37 percent decline on travel. Top gift categories: toys, then clothing and footwear — a signal apparel vendors can read as continued volume support.

Coresight's head of global research, John Mercer, puts retail sales growth at 4 to 4.5 percent, with retail inflation accounting for 2 to 2.5 points of that. "Once we strip out inflation, the season is likely to be weaker than last year's," he said. Gasoline price spikes since May have made consumers wary; the share expecting to spend more, and to buy more units, is down versus last year.

Pricing and supply signals

Discounting is forecast at or near historic highs, but imports are down this year, restricting available product, and higher costs could restrain markdown depth. Target has cut prices on thousands of products this year and on Tuesday announced reductions on another 2,000 home, apparel and accessories items. Mercer flags tension between retailers absorbing added distribution and logistics costs for faster delivery and consumers who want cheap or free shipping.

Margin pressure from price cuts and higher transportation and goods costs should be offset by tariff refunds and cost reductions in SG&A, logistics and payroll — including AI-driven efficiencies.

Channel and payment shifts

Coresight expects resale to rise, with four in 10 consumers buying secondhand versus about one-third last year. Buy-now-pay-later usage expectations climb to 27 percent from 24.5 percent. Mass retail will be the most popular first-stop channel, followed by online marketplaces — though marketplace expectations slipped from just over half last year to just under half, with Amazon and Target online losing ground and Walmart's marketplace gaining slightly.

AI becomes a channel

Accenture's 20th Annual Holiday Shopping Survey of 4,048 shoppers, conducted Aug. 13 to Sept. 1, puts average holiday budgets at $737, up nearly 12 percent — but largely reflecting higher prices. Shoppers expect generative AI to influence 45 percent of holiday spending, the first season where AI is a "mainstream channel"; nearly three in 10 trust an AI agent more than themselves for purchases, though only 22 percent would let it choose what to buy and 8 percent to buy independently. "For retailers, the priority is to ensure consumers and AI agents can easily access accurate product information, pricing, promotions, reviews and return policies wherever shopping decisions are made," said Accenture's global retail lead, Kelly Askew.

Adobe projects AI traffic to U.S. retail sites will rise 130 percent this season. It forecasts total online holiday spending of $275.1 billion, up 6.7 percent, with Cyber Monday at $15.1 billion (+6.2 percent) and Black Friday at $12.9 billion (+9.2 percent). Amazon's Prime Day event on Oct. 6–7, a day earlier than last year, should generate nearly $10 billion. BNPL will drive $21.3 billion in November–December sales, Adobe estimates.

Other benchmarks

Deloitte sees e-commerce of $316.1–$318.9 billion (Nov. 2026–Jan. 2027), up 7.5 to 8.4 percent, with total retail up 4 to 4.8 percent to about $1.7 trillion. Bain projects 4.5 percent growth surpassing $1 trillion; Mastercard sees 5.5 percent. Macy's raised full-year guidance to $21.68–$21.83 billion, and Walmart lifted constant-currency net sales growth to 4–5 percent from 3.5–4.5 percent. NRF and Prosper see Halloween spending at $13.5 billion, up from $13.1 billion.

Nine in 10 shoppers plan to start before Black Friday, and nearly one in five began before August — almost double the 2025 share — extending the fulfillment window and compressing late-season replenishment decisions.